Ontario recorded lowest GDP per-person growth nationwide from 2000-2022, now it’s Canada’s economic laggard

A Tale of Two Provinces: Economic and Fiscal Performance of Ontario and Quebec in the 21st Century

• Since 2000, Quebec’s real per-capita GDP has grown at an annual average of 1.2 percent, while Ontario’s has grown at 0.7 percent—both below the Canadian average.
• Ontario and Quebec’s real per-capita GDP are decidedly mid-ranked among Canada’s provinces, with Ontario slipping from second to the middle of the pack from 2000 to 2022.
• Quebec’s economic growth has closed much of the historic income gap with Ontario but mainly because Ontario has been a laggard with respect to economic growth for most of the 21st century.
• Ontario and Quebec lag behind the Rest of Canada in productivity and growth-enhancing business investment, particularly non-residential investment.
• Over the period 2000 to 2023, Ontario has run a deficit 19 out of 24 years—or nearly 80 percent of the time. Quebec, on the other hand, has improved its fiscal management relative to Ontario and runs a deficit 14 out of 24 years or nearly 60 percent of the time.
• Quebec has lowered its net debt-to-GDP ratio substantially since 2013, while Ontario has remained stuck near 40 percent.
• When it comes to public finances, Ontario has, to some extent, become the new Quebec, and Quebec the old Ontario.
• Ontario and Quebec face ongoing challenges on both the economic and fiscal fronts due to their relatively low economic and productivity growth.