Study
| EST. READ TIME 1 MIN.Canada had the third-lowest growth in per person GDP among 30 advanced economies between 2014 and 2022
We're Getting Poorer: GDP per Capita in Canada and the OECD, 2002-2060
- This research bulletin examines historical and projected trends in the growth of Canada's GDP per capita, and compares these trends to those in peer countries in the OECD.
- Canadians have been getting poorer relative to residents of other countries in the OECD. From 2002 to 2014, Canadian income growth as measured by GDP per capita roughly kept pace with the rest of the OECD. From 2014 to 2022, however, Canada's position declined sharply, ranking third-lowest among 30 countries for average growth over the period.
- Between 2012 and 2022, Canada lost ground compared to key allies and trading partners such as the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia, with Canadian GDP per capita declining from 80.4% of the US level in 2012 to 72.3% in 2022.
- Looking forward to 2060, Canada's projected average annual growth rate for GDP per capita (0.78%) is the lowest among 30 OECD countries.
- Canada's GDP per capita (after adjusting by inflation), which exceeded the OECD average by US$3,141 in 2002 and was roughly equivalent to the OECD average in 2022, is projected to fall below the OECD average by US$8,617 in 2060.
- The root cause of Canada's declining long-term growth in GDP per capita—recent and projected—is very low or negative growth in labour productivity reflecting weak investment in physical and human capital per worker.
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Alex Whalen
Director, Atlantic Canada Prosperity, Fraser Institute -
Milagros Palacios
Director, Addington Centre for Measurement, Fraser InstituteMilagros Palacios is the Director for the Addington Centre for Measurement at the Fraser Institute. She holds a B.S. in IndustrialEngineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and a M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Concepcion, Chile. Ms. Palacios has studied public policy involving taxation, government finances, investment, productivity, labour markets, and charitable giving, for nearly 10 years. Since joining the Institute, Ms. Palacios has authored or coauthored over 70 comprehensive research studies, 70 commentaries and four books. Her recent commentaries have appeared in major Canadian newspapers such as the National Post, Toronto Sun, Windsor Star, and Vancouver Sun.… Read more -
Lawrence Schembri
Senior Fellow, Fraser InstituteLawrence Schembri served as the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2013 until his retirement in June 2022.In this capacity, he was one of two deputy governors responsible for overseeing the Bank’s analysis and activities promoting a stable and efficient financial system. Starting in 2016, he was responsible for overseeing the Bank’s analysis of domestic economic developments. As a member of the Bank’s governing council, he shared responsibility for decisions related to monetary policy and financial system stability and for setting the Bank’s strategic direction. Mr. Schembri joined the Bank in 1997 as a visiting research advisor in what is now the International Economic Analysis Department. In 2001, he was appointed senior research director in the same department and became its managing director in 2005. In 2010 he was appointed advisor to the governor, with responsibilities for financial stability analysis and coordinating the Bank’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board. While at the Bank, Mr. Schembri was an active researcher, publishing research on exchange rate and monetary theory and policy in open economies, the international monetary system, and financial stability. A champion of efforts to promote economic literacy and Indigenous economic opportunity, he sponsored the Bank’s Governor’s Challenge undergraduate student competition and was a founding member of the Central Bank Network for Indigenous Inclusion. He currently serves on the board of the Tulo Centre of Indigenous Economics. Mr. Schembri received a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Toronto, an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Prior to joining the Bank of Canada, Mr. Schembri was an assistant professor and, later, associate professor of economics at Carleton University.… Read more